Are Some Things Better Left Unsaid?

October 7, 2024 – John Abrams

Pretty hard not to talk about the upcoming election.

Kim and I went to a fundraiser for Maryland congressman Jamie Raskin. He talked about his sense of the outcome. He used a word that few dare to utter: landslide. We were startled to hear him say it.

The only other person I can find who is predicting a democratic landslide (and saying it) is Thomas Miller. This highly respected Northwestern University data scientist’s method uses political betting data rather than polling data. Miller has produced a solid record of precise election predictions.

But are such predictions better left unsaid?

I’ve read about Miller in several places, but a September 22nd article about him in Daily Kos offers a particularly interesting perspective. It notes that positive predictions are sometimes thought to breed complacency. But it says that positive predictions are just a sign that what we are doing is working, so we better do more of it! Hopefully they inspire us in that way.

Good news and positive data can be powerful and influential. The article also says, “As Harris’s momentum starts to look unstoppable to voters and Trump's campaign looks more and more like a clown car that can’t get anything right, it becomes a feedback loop. It’s gotten to the point where even the media can’t keep up the charade of a horse race. Harris starts looking more and more like chief executive material and a competent leader, while Trump looks more and more like a sad, confused, desperate old man whose time is past.”

That trend could bring people out, don’t you think? I think it’s good to say it.

I am sometimes mildly chastised for my optimism. My friend Ben says I have rose-colored corneas. Sometimes it’s hard to be an optimist, but I don't choose to be one. My life experience has shaped me that way. (It may be partly genetic, too; my paternal grandfather was a far greater optimist than I.)

Right now I am cautiously optimistic and absolutely hopeful about the election. It’s not hard to understand why so many are worried and nervous, even after the uplift of Biden’s exit and Harris’ surprising ascendance. We’re all aware of how much is at stake next month and our precarious state; we are clearly between trapezes with no net. We’re aware of how far the Trump machine will go to obfuscate, confuse, tamper with, and ultimately fight the results. We’re aware, too, that even if Harris wins—unless we really do get a landslide that brings along the house and senate—we’ll have tough and frustrating years ahead.

The democratic trifecta sweep could happen. Sure, it looks dicey and improbable, but it’s not at all far-fetched. I think the pundits saying that it’s all about the border and the economy may be wrong.

I think women are the key, young and old. Their collective anger about their treatment by lawmakers may carry this election. Since Roe vs. Wade went down, seven states have voted on abortion laws. Four of them—Kansas, Montana, Kentucky, and Ohio—are red states. In all seven states, anti-abortion advocates have lost. Every one. This feels significant.

And there’s the silver lining side of the Trump factor itself. Author David Korten says that without Donald Trump, it is unlikely that the potential breakthrough of a Kamala Harris presidency now at hand would have been possible. Further, he says, Trump seems to be bringing together principled members of both the Democratic and Republican parties to oppose him.

For me, these signs are sliding hope toward optimism.

Meanwhile, we’ve got to keep working to leave a deep footprint of campaign success nationwide. The size of the victory margin is important.

Let’s keep giving money to the seven senate races that matter most—Ohio, Pennsylvania, Nevada, Arizona, Montana, Wisconsin, and Michigan. And Texas too. (As Colin Allred keeps easing closer to Ted Cruz, it’s nice to see Beto O’Rourke campaigning for him to win the seat that Beto narrowly lost—and hey, how satisfying would it be to see Cruz get booted?)

Let’s keep giving to the pivotal house races, which are linked here.  

Or just give to Movement Voter Project and/or League of Conservation Voters, both of which have great ground games and specialize in putting the money where it will do the most good.  Each provides one-stop election support mechanisms.

Or to Progressive Turnout Project, and you can order some postcards from them while you’re making a donation.

Okay, Jamie Raskin and Thomas Miller. You know a lot more about this than I ever will, and you give me confidence to go with my natural inclination. I’m in your camp. I’m saying it.

Landslide.

Now let’s make it a big one.